On To The General

With Mark Halperin, who made 2004 so interesting (I know he's got his critics). Tonight he offers lists of what Obama and Clinton are underestimating...

Obama underestimates:

1. The intensely loyal feelings many of Clinton’s supporters have about her – and the intensely negative feelings they have about him.

2. That any delay in choosing a running mate will only bring rampant speculation about whether he is going to pick Clinton – and if not, why not – speculation so extreme it might warp and dominate the entire process (and potentially create reams of critical and distracting press for his eventual Veep selection).

3. How sensitive the Clintons are to perceived slights – what Obama sees as gracious and sufficient they sometimes see as condescending and chilly.

4. The level of scrutiny that he is about to get—the national press corps may instinctively love his story, but general election coverage automatically will be at least twice as concentrated.

5. How much the McCain high command disdains him.

6. How much the Republican Party has been preparing for this moment—and for the general. And just how potent that effort can be–indifferent as it will be to charm, change, and charisma.

7. How much sober attention will be focused on the ramifications of the November election and the burdens of the next President: the fuss and fanfare about the epic Clinton-Obama battle will seem on some levels utterly frivolous in comparison.

Clinton underestimates:

1. How big the emotional comedown is going to be the day after she drops out. Recalculating the next chapter of her life without the 24-hour campaign grind will be a weighty task indeed.

2. How uninterested the Obamas are in having her family join the ticket (a longstanding sensibility, with added fodder provided by the Vanity Fair Purdum fallout).

3. The number of her staff and top supporters who will not tolerate her campaign continuing beyond Wednesday – and just how gravely they feel about it.

4. The amount of criticism she will receive if it does not appear she is doing everything humanly possible to help Obama get elected once the nomination is officially his.

5. The disdain felt towards her in most newsrooms (and, yes, she certainly knows it is quite high). The respectful pundit commentary (“she fought hard,” “she raised important issues,” “she made advancements for women,” “she has a big place in the Democratic Party,” “she’ll dominate the Senate”) will be short-lived if she makes a single wrong step.

6. The level of martyrdom status she will attain for some American women.

7. How complicated it will be to navigate her political path—through the Scylla of Bob Dole and the Charibdis of Bill Clinton—to get to the smooth iconic waters of Al Gore and Ted Kennedy.